Hi Kevin,
I think you're right about the complexity of the scene. I think the water is probably the main reason for the non-linear increase in render time. GI also has this problem according to my tests, but reflections in rough surfaces seem to be much worse. It's probably due to the high number of micropolygons that need to be generated for reflections, and at higher resolutions it becomes more difficult for TG2 to cache enough micropolygons to keep it fast. With smooth water you might get better results because the coherence of the reflection rays makes it easier to cache the reflected micropolygons.
Matt