Sorry for the late reply. Somehow we missed this one.
It looks to me like the pop happens in the reflections of the clouds; is that your belief too?
I see that you're using a GI cache file (or sequence), which is good. I wonder if there is an issue with the cache file sequence, such as running out of frames, or a mix of files from different cache generation renders. If you haven't ruled out that possibility, that might be a place to look.
Did you render the image sequence on one computer? If so, did you pause and resume the sequence at some point? Could this have happened at the frame where the pop occurs? You should be able to pause and resume without problems, but it seems like one of the more likely places that a bug could occur.
I would suggest running another low resolution test (and perhaps with a limited crop region around the lake) on the same frame range that you uploaded here, and see if the pop happens exactly the same as it did the first time. If it's 100% reproducible on the same frame then that's going to make it much easier for us to reproduce the issue here and figure out a bug fix.